We are seeing notable shifts in the Canadian real estate market: in mid-Q3, home sales across the country declined by approximately 1% month-over-month and nearly 7% compared to last year. The price index remained unchanged from the previous month, but was down about 3% year-over-year. Interestingly, new property listings have rebounded by roughly 3% after three months of decline, creating a more balanced market dynamic. The sales-to-new listings ratio has eased further, now around 49%—falling below the long-term Canadian average of 55%. These changes are being shaped by ongoing economic uncertainty, higher mortgage costs, and the impact of rising bond yields, which have pushed fixed mortgage rates up. At this point, the market had priced in around a 60% chance of a rate hike in early Q4, and over one percentage point of tightening projected by 2027.
Drawing on my experience analyzing both residential and commercial real estate trends, I find that understanding these factors is essential for making informed decisions—whether you are buying, selling, or exploring opportunities to renovate for added value. As always, my goal is to provide you with current market insights so you can navigate these changes with clarity.
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